Key Points
- The U.S. divorce rate has been falling for decades. It peaked around 1980 and is now less than half of what it was then, according to Pew Research Center.
- Lack of commitment, infidelity, and constant conflict are the reasons divorcing couples cite most often, based on published research in Couple and Family Psychology.
- Divorce feels more visible than ever because of social media, less stigma, and a sharp rise in "gray divorce" among couples over 50.
Every few months a client sits across from me and says some version of the same thing: "It seems like everyone I know is splitting up." Three couples in their friend group, a sibling, a coworker, half their social media feed. So they assume divorce is exploding.
Here is the surprising part. It isn't. After nearly two decades practicing family law, and sitting on the bench as a judge pro tem, I can tell you the perception and the data point in opposite directions. Understanding why can help you make better decisions about your own marriage, whether you're trying to save it or thinking about ending it.
Is the Divorce Rate Actually Going Up?
No. The divorce rate in the United States has been declining for more than 40 years.
The most reliable measure is the refined divorce rate, which counts divorces per 1,000 married women.
According to the Pew Research Center, that rate peaked at 22.6 around 1980 and has since fallen to 14.4 as of 2023, with the steepest drop coming in the last 15 years. The
CDC's National Center for Health Statistics tells a similar story, with the crude divorce rate now sitting near historic lows.
Part of the explanation is that fewer people are marrying in the first place, and those who do marry tend to marry later, with more education and more financial stability. Those factors all predict longer marriages.
What Percentage of Marriages End in Divorce?
You've heard the famous claim that half of all marriages end in divorce. It's outdated, and it was never as solid as it sounded. Current CDC estimates put the likelihood of a first marriage ending in divorce closer to the mid-30 percent range, and the number keeps drifting down as younger generations divorce less than their parents did.
Marriages that do end are also lasting longer before they end. Pew reports that the median length of a marriage ending in divorce rose from 10 years in 2008 to 12 years in 2023. Roughly 40 percent of divorces happen in the first decade, but more than a fifth now happen after 25 or more years together.
What Is the Number One Reason People Get Divorced?
When researchers ask divorced people directly, one answer comes up more than any other: lack of commitment. In a
study published in Couple and Family Psychology, 75 percent of participants named it as a major contributor to their divorce, ahead of infidelity and conflict.
That finding matches what I see in practice. Very few marriages end over a single event. They end because one or both spouses stopped investing, stopped repairing after arguments, and stopped treating the marriage as something worth working on. Communication breakdowns are usually where that shows up first. If conversations in your home have turned into scorekeeping or silence, our article on
listening to your partner is a practical place to start.
The Most Common Reasons Marriages End
The same body of research, along with surveys reviewed by the
Institute for Family Studies, points to a consistent set of causes:
- Lack of commitment. The most cited factor overall, named by roughly three in four divorced people.
- Infidelity. A major contributor in about 60 percent of divorces, and the single most common "final straw" that pushes someone to file.
- Conflict and constant arguing. Cited by more than half of divorced individuals. It's rarely the topic of the fights that matters. It's the inability to resolve them.
- Marrying too young. About 45 percent of divorced people say they weren't ready when they married. Couples who marry in their late 20s or early 30s divorce at meaningfully lower rates.
- Financial problems. Money stress and incompatible financial values show up in roughly a third of divorces.
- Domestic abuse and substance use. Less common overall, but among the most frequent deciding factors when they're present. If you're in danger, your safety comes before any legal strategy, and help is available.
If several of these sound familiar, it may help to read our guide to the
12 signs of a marriage ending. Recognizing the pattern early gives you more options, not fewer.
How Long Does the Average Marriage Last?
For marriages that end in divorce, the median is now about 12 years, up from the 8-year figure that circulated for decades. The old idea of the "seven-year itch" still holds a kernel of truth, since a large share of divorces cluster in years five through nine, and
Psychology Today has explored why so many marriages hit a wall around year eight. But the bigger modern story is at the other end of the timeline.
The Rise of Gray Divorce
Here is where the numbers really have changed. While divorce among younger couples has fallen, divorce among adults 50 and older has climbed sharply. Pew's analysis shows the divorce rate for adults 65 and older has roughly tripled since 1990. Longer lifespans, financial independence, and empty nests mean more people in long marriages are deciding they want a different final chapter.
Gray divorce comes with its own challenges, especially around retirement accounts and pensions. If that's your situation, our article on
pensions and divorce covers what's at stake.
So Why Does Divorce Feel So Common?
Three reasons, in my experience.
First, visibility. Divorce used to be whispered about. Now it's announced on Instagram, discussed on podcasts, and covered every time a celebrity couple splits. You're not seeing more divorce. You're seeing divorce more.
Second, less stigma. People no longer feel obligated to hide an ending or stay in a harmful marriage to keep up appearances. That's a good thing, even if it makes divorce seem omnipresent.
Third, clustering. Research has long shown that divorce moves through social networks. When one couple in a friend group divorces, others often reevaluate their own marriages. So divorces tend to arrive in waves among people you know, which makes "everyone is getting divorced" feel true even when the national numbers say otherwise.
Who Is Least Likely to Divorce?
The couples with the best odds share a few traits: they married at 25 or older, completed more education, entered the marriage on stable financial footing, and treat commitment as an ongoing practice rather than a one-time vow. None of those guarantee anything. I've watched marriages with every advantage fail and marriages with none of them thrive. But the pattern is consistent across decades of data.
One quick note on timing, since people often ask: divorce filings tend to peak in March and August, not January. We break down that pattern in our article on
the myth and reality of Divorce Month.
What This Means for You
If your marriage is struggling, the data offers two honest takeaways. Most marital problems are common and survivable, and the couples who make it are usually the ones who address problems early instead of letting resentment compound. Counseling, honest conversations, and time invested in the relationship genuinely change outcomes.
And if the marriage truly is over, that isn't a personal failure. It's a decision hundreds of thousands of people make thoughtfully every year, and
life after divorce is often healthier and happier than the years that led up to it. You don't have to figure it out alone. A
certified divorce coach can help you think clearly, stay grounded, and plan your next steps, whatever those turn out to be.
